Mr. Market is currently offering United Parcel Service, Inc. at $96.22.
The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
At $96.22, the stock trades at a 70% premium to its Graham Number of $56.68. Graham would consider this price speculative.
There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.
Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign..
Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.
United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit % | 18.1% ▲ | 18.0% | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| Operating Margin % | 8.9% ▼ | 9.3% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| Net Income % | 6.3% ▼ | 6.3% | 7.4% | 11.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 6.56 ▼ | 6.75 | 7.80 | 13.20 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $73.1B | $70.1B | $70.9B | $71.1B | N/A |
| Total Debt | $28.6B ↑ | $25.7B | $26.7B | $23.5B | N/A |
| Working Capital | $3.4B ▲ | $2.9B | $1.7B | $4.1B | N/A |
| Years to Pay Debt | 5.13 | 4.44 | 3.98 | 2.04 | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B ▼ | $6.2B | $5.1B | $9.3B | N/A |
| Owner Earnings | $13.0B | $13.3B | $15.2B | $19.5B | N/A |
| CapEx % of Net Income | 66.1% | 67.6% | 76.9% | 41.3% | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Expenditure % of Net Income | 66.1% | 67.6% | 76.9% | 41.3% | N/A |
| Repurchase of Capital Stock | -$1.0B | -$500M | -$2.2B | -$3.5B | N/A |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B ▼ | $6.2B ▲ | $5.1B ▼ | $9.3B • | N/A • |
| Warren's Owner Earnings | $13.0B | $13.3B | $15.2B | $19.5B | N/A |
| Institution | % Owned | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 9.20% | 68,496,420 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 6.78% | 50,501,214 |
| State Street Corporation | 4.31% | 32,092,627 |
| FMR, LLC | 3.76% | 28,009,332 |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc. | 3.64% | 27,142,759 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 2.30% | 17,154,091 |
| Victory Capital Management Inc. | 1.86% | 13,818,314 |
| NORGES BANK | 1.22% | 9,098,158 |
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) fundamental analysis — Overall grade D based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $56.68. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 18.1%. Operating margin: 8.9%. Net margin: 6.3%. Market cap: $81.8B. Sector: Industrials. Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.
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