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Upstart Holdings, Inc.

NASDAQ · Financial Services
Upstart Holdings, Inc.
UPST · Credit Services
$32.08
▼ -0.66 (-2.02%)
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Mr. Market is currently offering Upstart Holdings, Inc. at $32.08.
The business passes only 0 of 5 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
Overall Grade
F
Defensive
F
Enterprising
Profitability F
Operating Margin 2.4%
Net Income Margin 5.2%
Fin. Health F
Years to Pay Off Debt 34.5 yrs
Valuation F
Margin of Safety 0.0%
Price-to-Book 3.84x
Cash Flow D
Free Cash Flow -$166M
CapEx % of Net Income 34.3%
Owner Earnings $97M
0/5
Graham Score
Speculative
Defensive — Graham's strict criteria (P/B, P/E, dividends, stability)  ·  Enterprising — Profitability & cash flow focused, accepts higher valuations for quality
Metric Explanations
What each dimension measures and where the thresholds come from.
Operating Margin
Profit after operating costs before interest and taxes. A consistent ≥15% operating margin signals a business with real competitive advantages. Capital-intensive industries (airlines, auto, commodities) rarely hit this threshold due to their structural cost base — compare within industry for context.
Net Income Margin
Bottom-line profit as a percentage of revenue. The ≥20% target reflects Buffett's preference for highly profitable businesses. Financial engineering (buybacks, tax optimisation) can inflate this temporarily — look for consistency across multiple years rather than a single strong result.
Years to Pay Off Debt
Total Debt ÷ Net Income. Lower = stronger balance sheet. Important caveat: utilities, telecoms, REITs, and infrastructure companies carry large structural debt by design — their bond-like cash flows service it comfortably at ratios that would alarm Graham. Compare within sector.
Margin of Safety
How far below the Graham Number the stock trades. Graham required a 33% discount as a buffer against analytical error. However, the Graham Number itself assumes 1960s-era P/E and P/B norms — for modern asset-light businesses it often understates true intrinsic value, making 0% MoS appear misleadingly bad.
Price-to-Book
Market price vs book value per share. Rarely below 1.5x for quality businesses today. Intangible assets (brand, software, patents) don't appear on the balance sheet under accounting rules, making P/B artificially high for asset-light companies. Negative P/B indicates book equity has been reduced by buybacks — common in highly profitable capital-return businesses.
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Buffett's most important metric — cash a business actually generates for its owners after maintaining and growing its asset base. Consistently positive FCF is one of the strongest indicators of a durable, well-run business regardless of accounting profits.
CapEx % of Net Income
Capital expenditure as a share of net income. Low CapEx signals a capital-light business that doesn't need heavy reinvestment to sustain earnings — Buffett's ideal. High CapEx is structurally necessary in manufacturing, airlines, telecoms, and semiconductors. For these industries, a high reading reflects the business model, not poor management.
Owner Earnings
Net Income + Depreciation & Amortisation − Capital Expenditures. Buffett's preferred measure of a company's true annual earning power — what could theoretically be distributed to owners without impairing the business. More reliable than reported EPS because it accounts for the capital cost of maintaining the business.
Market Data
Market Cap $3.1B
Enterprise Value $4.4B
P/E (TTM) 71.29
Dividend Yield N/A
Exchange NASDAQ
Key Margins
Gross Profit N/A
Operating Margin 2.4%
Net Margin 5.2%
Company Info
Sector Financial Services
Industry Credit Services
Employees 1405
Country United States
Visit website
📖
Full Graham Analysis

Mr. Market is currently offering Upstart Holdings, Inc. at $32.08.

The business passes only 0 of 5 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.

At $32.08, the stock trades at a 249% premium to its Graham Number of $9.19. Graham would consider this price speculative.

There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.

Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.

About Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Upstart Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Personal Lending, Auto Lending, and Other. Its platform includes unsecured personal loans, small dollar loans, auto refinance, auto retail loans, and auto secured personal loan, and home equity lines of credit. Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

Showing Key Metrics
Income Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Gross Profit % N/A • N/A N/A N/A N/A
Operating Margin % 2.4% ▼ 3.0% 4.2% 1.1% N/A
Net Income % 5.2% ▲ -20.4% -47.3% -13.0% N/A
Diluted EPS 0.45 ▲ -1.44 -2.87 -1.31 N/A
Balance Sheet Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Total Assets $3.0B $2.4B $2.0B $1.9B N/A
Total Debt $1.9B ↑ $1.5B $1.1B $1.1B N/A
Working Capital N/A • N/A N/A N/A N/A
Years to Pay Debt 34.52 -11.30 -4.59 -10.00 N/A
Cash Flow Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Free Cash Flow -$166M ▼ $176M -$124M -$681M N/A
Owner Earnings $97M -$98M -$203M -$72M N/A
CapEx % of Net Income 34.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
These metrics estimate what Upstart Holdings, Inc. is worth based on its fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. Graham's Fair Value and NCAV are conservative floors rooted in 1930s–60s principles. EPV assumes zero growth. None are price targets — they are reference points for judging whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
Graham's Fair Value
$9.19
Margin of Safety
0%
Market Cap ÷ Company Value
3.17
P/B Ratio
3.84
Warren's Owner Earnings
$97M
Latest fiscal year
Graham's 7 Criteria
Defensive Investor Checklist
0/5 — Speculative Investor
❌ Adequate Size
$1.0B
vs > $1.5B revenue
❌ Earnings Stability
3 loss years (4 yrs data)
vs No negative EPS years
❌ Dividend Record
No dividend
vs Uninterrupted dividends
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio
71.3x
vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book
3.84x P/B (P/E×P/B: 274.0)
vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 7 Criteria — Explained
What each criterion measures and why it may or may not apply to modern businesses.
❌ Adequate Size — $1.0B vs > $1.5B revenue
Graham required companies large enough to withstand economic downturns. This threshold ($1.5B) is inflation-adjusted from Graham's original $100M — virtually all S&P 500 companies pass this today.
"The minimum size of an enterprise should be not less than $100 million of annual sales."
❌ Earnings Stability — 3 loss years (4 yrs data) vs No negative EPS years
Graham required uninterrupted positive earnings. Any loss year is a red flag for defensive investors. Growth companies and cyclicals may show occasional losses during investment cycles or downturns without being fundamentally unsound.
"The company should have shown no deficit in the past ten years."
❌ Dividend Record — No dividend vs Uninterrupted dividends
Graham valued dividends as evidence of financial discipline and shareholder alignment. Many excellent modern businesses (Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway) pay no dividend, preferring to reinvest cash at high rates of return. Failing this criterion does not indicate a poor business — it may indicate a high-growth one.
"Some current dividend payments — for at least the past 20 years."
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio — 71.3x vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
Graham's 15x P/E threshold was calibrated to 1960s market averages when interest rates were higher. Today's lower rate environment structurally supports higher multiples — the S&P 500 long-run average P/E is now closer to 20–25x. A stock trading at 20x is not automatically speculative in the modern context.
"The price-earnings ratio should be no more than 15 times average earnings."
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book — 3.84x P/B (P/E×P/B: 274.0) vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 1.5x P/B threshold made sense when most company value was tangible. Today, intangible assets — brand, software, patents, network effects — rarely appear on the balance sheet. A high P/B in tech, pharma, or consumer brands often reflects intangible value, not overvaluation. P/FCF or EV/EBITDA are more reliable for asset-light businesses.
"The price should not be more than 1½ times book value. P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5."
Net Current Asset Value
N/A
"Buy at two-thirds of net current assets." — Graham
Earnings Power Value
$2.82
Per share, no-growth floor. Compare to current price.
Cash Flow Analysis
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Capital Expenditure % of Net Income 34.3% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Repurchase of Capital Stock N/A $0M $0M -$178M $0M
Free Cash Flow -$166M ▼ $176M ▲ -$124M ▲ -$681M • N/A •
Warren's Owner Earnings $97M -$98M -$203M -$72M N/A
Peers & Industry
No auto-detected peers for Credit Services. You can manually compare UPST against any stock using the Compare tool.
"The management of a business is its most important single factor — more important than market position, patents, or financial structure."
— Benjamin Graham
Capital Allocation & Alignment
Insider Ownership
12.93%
High — management has strong skin in the game
Return on Equity (ROE)
6.7%
Weak — poor returns on equity
Return on Assets (ROA)
1.8%
Poor — assets are not generating adequate returns
Debt Trend YoY
+27.4% YoY
Debt is growing — management is leveraging up
Leadership Team
David Girouard
Executive Chairman & Special Advisor
Age 59
Pay: $1,073,270
2.002% of net income
Sanjay Datta CFA
President of Capital & Enterprise
Pay: $872,483
1.628% of net income
Andrea Blankmeyer
Chief Financial Officer
Top Institutional Holders
Institution % Owned Shares
Vanguard Group Inc 8.44% 8,073,659
Blackrock Inc. 7.41% 7,088,760
Jericho Capital Asset Management, LP 5.24% 5,011,809
Morgan Stanley 4.40% 4,206,615
Bank of America Corporation 2.65% 2,538,426
Geode Capital Management, LLC 2.16% 2,068,515
Clear Street Group Inc. 2.15% 2,061,714
State Street Corporation 2.09% 2,001,053
⚠️ Very high beta — extreme price volatility
⚠️ Short interest exceeds 20% — heavy bearish bets
Risk Analysis
Beta (Market Risk)
2.26
High volatility — moves more than the market
Short Interest
33.4% of float
Heavy short selling — market has significant bearish bets
Debt-to-Equity
2.37x
High leverage — significant financial risk
Current Ratio
13.10x
Strong liquidity — Graham approved
52-Week Price Range
Low: $23.96 Current: $32.08 High: $87.30
Currently at 13% of 52-week range

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) fundamental analysis — Overall grade F based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $9.19. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: N/A. Operating margin: 2.4%. Net margin: 5.2%. Market cap: $3.1B. Sector: Financial Services. Industry: Credit Services. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.

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