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Twilio Inc.

NYSE · Technology
Twilio Inc.
TWLO · Software - Infrastructure
$190.28
▲ 6.95 (3.79%)
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Mr. Market is currently offering Twilio Inc. at $190.28.
The business passes only 2 of 6 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
Overall Grade
D
Defensive
C
Enterprising
Profitability D
Gross Profit Margin 48.9%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Net Income Margin 0.7%
Fin. Health B
Years to Pay Off Debt 32.0 yrs
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt $1.7B
Working Capital $2.7B
Valuation F
Margin of Safety 0.0%
Price-to-Book 3.69x
Cash Flow C
Free Cash Flow $945M
CapEx % of Net Income 170.9%
Owner Earnings $287M
2/6
Graham Score
Speculative
Defensive — Graham's strict criteria (P/B, P/E, dividends, stability)  ·  Enterprising — Profitability & cash flow focused, accepts higher valuations for quality
Metric Explanations
What each dimension measures and where the thresholds come from.
Gross Profit Margin
Revenue minus cost of goods sold. Graham's ≥40% threshold identifies businesses with durable pricing power. Note: software and financial companies naturally exceed this; retailers and manufacturers rarely reach it due to their cost structures.
Operating Margin
Profit after operating costs before interest and taxes. A consistent ≥15% operating margin signals a business with real competitive advantages. Capital-intensive industries (airlines, auto, commodities) rarely hit this threshold due to their structural cost base — compare within industry for context.
Net Income Margin
Bottom-line profit as a percentage of revenue. The ≥20% target reflects Buffett's preference for highly profitable businesses. Financial engineering (buybacks, tax optimisation) can inflate this temporarily — look for consistency across multiple years rather than a single strong result.
Years to Pay Off Debt
Total Debt ÷ Net Income. Lower = stronger balance sheet. Important caveat: utilities, telecoms, REITs, and infrastructure companies carry large structural debt by design — their bond-like cash flows service it comfortably at ratios that would alarm Graham. Compare within sector.
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt
Working Capital minus Long-Term Debt. Negative results are common and expected in capital-return-focused businesses like Apple, Domino's, and McDonald's — where aggressive buybacks and dividends intentionally reduce book equity. This does not indicate financial distress in high-FCF businesses.
Working Capital
Current Assets minus Current Liabilities. Negative working capital can be a deliberate efficiency strategy in businesses that collect cash before paying suppliers (retailers, fast food franchises, subscription businesses). Assess alongside free cash flow generation for full context.
Margin of Safety
How far below the Graham Number the stock trades. Graham required a 33% discount as a buffer against analytical error. However, the Graham Number itself assumes 1960s-era P/E and P/B norms — for modern asset-light businesses it often understates true intrinsic value, making 0% MoS appear misleadingly bad.
Price-to-Book
Market price vs book value per share. Rarely below 1.5x for quality businesses today. Intangible assets (brand, software, patents) don't appear on the balance sheet under accounting rules, making P/B artificially high for asset-light companies. Negative P/B indicates book equity has been reduced by buybacks — common in highly profitable capital-return businesses.
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Buffett's most important metric — cash a business actually generates for its owners after maintaining and growing its asset base. Consistently positive FCF is one of the strongest indicators of a durable, well-run business regardless of accounting profits.
CapEx % of Net Income
Capital expenditure as a share of net income. Low CapEx signals a capital-light business that doesn't need heavy reinvestment to sustain earnings — Buffett's ideal. High CapEx is structurally necessary in manufacturing, airlines, telecoms, and semiconductors. For these industries, a high reading reflects the business model, not poor management.
Owner Earnings
Net Income + Depreciation & Amortisation − Capital Expenditures. Buffett's preferred measure of a company's true annual earning power — what could theoretically be distributed to owners without impairing the business. More reliable than reported EPS because it accounts for the capital cost of maintaining the business.
Market Data
Market Cap $28.9B
Enterprise Value $26.7B
P/E (TTM) 288.31
Dividend Yield N/A
Exchange NYSE
Key Margins
Gross Profit 48.9%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Net Margin 0.7%
Company Info
Sector Technology
Industry Software - Infrastructure
Employees 5558
Country United States
Visit website
📖
Full Graham Analysis

Mr. Market is currently offering Twilio Inc. at $190.28.

The business passes only 2 of 6 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.

At $190.28, the stock trades at a 1120% premium to its Graham Number of $15.60. Graham would consider this price speculative.

There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.

Trading at 17.7x NCAV. Expected for most quality businesses — NCAV was designed to find depression-era bargains and rarely applies to modern profitable companies..

Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.

About Twilio Inc.

Twilio Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides customer engagement platform solutions in the United States and internationally. The company provides various application programming interfaces and software solutions for communications between customers and end users, including messaging, voice, email, video interactions, digital engagement centers, marketing campaigns, and user authentication and identity solutions. It also offers software products to build direct and personalized relationships with their end users, such as Segment, a platform that provides tools to harness the power of contextual data by unifying real-time information collected throughout each customer's journey into a unique profile. Twilio Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Showing Key Metrics
Income Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022
Gross Profit % 48.9% ▼ 51.1% 49.2% 47.4%
Operating Margin % 3.4% ▲ -0.9% -9.4% -26.9%
Net Income % 0.7% ▲ -2.5% -24.4% -32.8%
Diluted EPS 0.21 ▲ -0.66 -5.54 -6.86
Balance Sheet Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Total Assets $9.8B $9.9B $11.6B $12.6B N/A
Total Debt $1.1B ↓ $1.1B $1.2B $1.2B N/A
Working Capital $2.7B ▲ $2.6B $4.2B $4.2B N/A
Years to Pay Debt 31.97 -10.15 -1.14 -0.99 N/A
Cash Flow Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Free Cash Flow $945M ▲ $657M $364M -$335M N/A
Owner Earnings $287M $155M -$680M -$897M N/A
CapEx % of Net Income 170.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
These metrics estimate what Twilio Inc. is worth based on its fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. Graham's Fair Value and NCAV are conservative floors rooted in 1930s–60s principles. EPV assumes zero growth. None are price targets — they are reference points for judging whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
Graham's Fair Value
$15.60
Margin of Safety
0%
Market Cap ÷ Company Value
1.13
P/B Ratio
3.69
Warren's Owner Earnings
$287M
Latest fiscal year
Graham's 7 Criteria
Defensive Investor Checklist
2/6 — Speculative Investor
✅ Adequate Size
$5.1B
vs > $1.5B revenue
✅ Strong Financial Condition
4.03x
vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
❌ Earnings Stability
3 loss years (4 yrs data)
vs No negative EPS years
❌ Dividend Record
No dividend
vs Uninterrupted dividends
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio
288.3x
vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book
3.69x P/B (P/E×P/B: 1064.6)
vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 7 Criteria — Explained
What each criterion measures and why it may or may not apply to modern businesses.
✅ Adequate Size — $5.1B vs > $1.5B revenue
Graham required companies large enough to withstand economic downturns. This threshold ($1.5B) is inflation-adjusted from Graham's original $100M — virtually all S&P 500 companies pass this today.
"The minimum size of an enterprise should be not less than $100 million of annual sales."
✅ Strong Financial Condition — 4.03x vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
Current assets must be at least twice current liabilities. Note: highly profitable companies (Apple, Domino's) often run negative or low working capital deliberately — they collect cash fast and stretch payables. A failing score here is not always a warning sign.
"For industrial companies, current assets should be at least twice current liabilities."
❌ Earnings Stability — 3 loss years (4 yrs data) vs No negative EPS years
Graham required uninterrupted positive earnings. Any loss year is a red flag for defensive investors. Growth companies and cyclicals may show occasional losses during investment cycles or downturns without being fundamentally unsound.
"The company should have shown no deficit in the past ten years."
❌ Dividend Record — No dividend vs Uninterrupted dividends
Graham valued dividends as evidence of financial discipline and shareholder alignment. Many excellent modern businesses (Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway) pay no dividend, preferring to reinvest cash at high rates of return. Failing this criterion does not indicate a poor business — it may indicate a high-growth one.
"Some current dividend payments — for at least the past 20 years."
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio — 288.3x vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
Graham's 15x P/E threshold was calibrated to 1960s market averages when interest rates were higher. Today's lower rate environment structurally supports higher multiples — the S&P 500 long-run average P/E is now closer to 20–25x. A stock trading at 20x is not automatically speculative in the modern context.
"The price-earnings ratio should be no more than 15 times average earnings."
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book — 3.69x P/B (P/E×P/B: 1064.6) vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 1.5x P/B threshold made sense when most company value was tangible. Today, intangible assets — brand, software, patents, network effects — rarely appear on the balance sheet. A high P/B in tech, pharma, or consumer brands often reflects intangible value, not overvaluation. P/FCF or EV/EBITDA are more reliable for asset-light businesses.
"The price should not be more than 1½ times book value. P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5."
Net Current Asset Value
$10.72
Trading at 17.7x NCAV. Expected for most quality businesses — NCAV was designed to find depression-era bargains and rarely applies to modern profitable companies.
"Buy at two-thirds of net current assets." — Graham
Earnings Power Value
$12.79
Per share, no-growth floor. Compare to current price.
Cash Flow Analysis
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Capital Expenditure % of Net Income 170.9% N/A N/A N/A N/A
Repurchase of Capital Stock -$869M -$2.3B -$669M $0M N/A
Free Cash Flow $945M ▲ $657M ▲ $364M ▲ -$335M • N/A •
Warren's Owner Earnings $287M $155M -$680M -$897M N/A
Peers & Industry
No auto-detected peers for Software - Infrastructure. You can manually compare TWLO against any stock using the Compare tool.
"The management of a business is its most important single factor — more important than market position, patents, or financial structure."
— Benjamin Graham
Capital Allocation & Alignment
Insider Ownership
0.12%
Low — management has little skin in the game
Return on Equity (ROE)
0.4%
Weak — poor returns on equity
Return on Assets (ROA)
0.3%
Poor — assets are not generating adequate returns
Share Buybacks (Latest Year)
$869M
Management is returning capital to shareholders via buybacks
Debt Trend YoY
-2.6% YoY
Debt is declining — management is deleveraging
Leadership Team
Khozema Shipchandler
CEO & Director
Age 51
Pay: $2,893,378
8.552% of net income
Aidan Viggiano
Chief Financial Officer
Age 45
Pay: $1,939,594
5.733% of net income
Bryan Vaniman
Senior Vice President of Corporate Development, Investor Relations & Treasury
Age 49
Robin Grochol
Vice President of Product, Data, Security & Identity,
Rodney Nelson
Vice President of Investor Relations
Top Institutional Holders
Institution % Owned Shares
Blackrock Inc. 10.80% 16,423,070
Vanguard Group Inc 10.16% 15,449,586
FMR, LLC 7.02% 10,672,418
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 6.02% 9,153,934
State Street Corporation 3.80% 5,787,207
Invesco Ltd. 2.07% 3,151,546
Royal Bank of Canada 1.94% 2,944,377
Geode Capital Management, LLC 1.81% 2,746,881
Risk Analysis
Beta (Market Risk)
1.32
Moderate volatility — moves slightly more than market
Short Interest
5.5% of float
Moderate short interest
Debt-to-Equity
0.14x
Conservative balance sheet — low financial risk
Current Ratio
4.66x
Strong liquidity — Graham approved
52-Week Price Range
Low: $91.84 Current: $190.28 High: $192.70
Currently at 98% of 52-week range

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) fundamental analysis — Overall grade D based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $15.60. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 48.9%. Operating margin: 3.4%. Net margin: 0.7%. Market cap: $28.9B. Sector: Technology. Industry: Software - Infrastructure. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.

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