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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

NYSE · Consumer Cyclical
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG · Restaurants
$32.04
▼ -0.94 (-2.85%)
Data cached · refreshes every 10 min
Mr. Market is currently offering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. at $32.04.
The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
Overall Grade
D
Defensive
C
Enterprising
Profitability B
Gross Profit Margin 25.4%
Operating Margin 16.9%
Net Income Margin 12.9%
Fin. Health C
Years to Pay Off Debt 3.3 yrs
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt -$4.5B
Working Capital $279M
Valuation F
Margin of Safety 0.0%
Price-to-Book 14.55x
Cash Flow C
Free Cash Flow $1.4B
CapEx % of Net Income 43.4%
Owner Earnings $2.6B
3/7
Graham Score
Speculative
Defensive — Graham's strict criteria (P/B, P/E, dividends, stability)  ·  Enterprising — Profitability & cash flow focused, accepts higher valuations for quality
Metric Explanations
What each dimension measures and where the thresholds come from.
Gross Profit Margin
Revenue minus cost of goods sold. Graham's ≥40% threshold identifies businesses with durable pricing power. Note: software and financial companies naturally exceed this; retailers and manufacturers rarely reach it due to their cost structures.
Operating Margin
Profit after operating costs before interest and taxes. A consistent ≥15% operating margin signals a business with real competitive advantages. Capital-intensive industries (airlines, auto, commodities) rarely hit this threshold due to their structural cost base — compare within industry for context.
Net Income Margin
Bottom-line profit as a percentage of revenue. The ≥20% target reflects Buffett's preference for highly profitable businesses. Financial engineering (buybacks, tax optimisation) can inflate this temporarily — look for consistency across multiple years rather than a single strong result.
Years to Pay Off Debt
Total Debt ÷ Net Income. Lower = stronger balance sheet. Important caveat: utilities, telecoms, REITs, and infrastructure companies carry large structural debt by design — their bond-like cash flows service it comfortably at ratios that would alarm Graham. Compare within sector.
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt
Working Capital minus Long-Term Debt. Negative results are common and expected in capital-return-focused businesses like Apple, Domino's, and McDonald's — where aggressive buybacks and dividends intentionally reduce book equity. This does not indicate financial distress in high-FCF businesses.
Working Capital
Current Assets minus Current Liabilities. Negative working capital can be a deliberate efficiency strategy in businesses that collect cash before paying suppliers (retailers, fast food franchises, subscription businesses). Assess alongside free cash flow generation for full context.
Margin of Safety
How far below the Graham Number the stock trades. Graham required a 33% discount as a buffer against analytical error. However, the Graham Number itself assumes 1960s-era P/E and P/B norms — for modern asset-light businesses it often understates true intrinsic value, making 0% MoS appear misleadingly bad.
Price-to-Book
Market price vs book value per share. Rarely below 1.5x for quality businesses today. Intangible assets (brand, software, patents) don't appear on the balance sheet under accounting rules, making P/B artificially high for asset-light companies. Negative P/B indicates book equity has been reduced by buybacks — common in highly profitable capital-return businesses.
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Buffett's most important metric — cash a business actually generates for its owners after maintaining and growing its asset base. Consistently positive FCF is one of the strongest indicators of a durable, well-run business regardless of accounting profits.
CapEx % of Net Income
Capital expenditure as a share of net income. Low CapEx signals a capital-light business that doesn't need heavy reinvestment to sustain earnings — Buffett's ideal. High CapEx is structurally necessary in manufacturing, airlines, telecoms, and semiconductors. For these industries, a high reading reflects the business model, not poor management.
Owner Earnings
Net Income + Depreciation & Amortisation − Capital Expenditures. Buffett's preferred measure of a company's true annual earning power — what could theoretically be distributed to owners without impairing the business. More reliable than reported EPS because it accounts for the capital cost of maintaining the business.
Market Data
Market Cap $41.2B
Enterprise Value $46.7B
P/E (TTM) 29.39
Dividend Yield N/A
Exchange NYSE
Key Margins
Gross Profit 25.4%
Operating Margin 16.9%
Net Margin 12.9%
Company Info
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Restaurants
Employees 135000
Country United States
Visit website
📖
Full Graham Analysis

Mr. Market is currently offering Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. at $32.04.

The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.

At $32.04, the stock trades at a 326% premium to its Graham Number of $7.52. Graham would consider this price speculative.

There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.

Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign..

Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.

About Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Showing Key Metrics
Income Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Gross Profit % 25.4% ▼ 26.7% 26.2% 23.9% N/A
Operating Margin % 16.9% ▼ 17.5% 16.5% 14.0% N/A
Net Income % 12.9% ▼ 13.6% 12.4% 10.4% N/A
Diluted EPS 1.14 ▲ 1.11 0.89 0.64 N/A
Balance Sheet Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Total Assets $9.0B $9.2B $8.0B $6.9B N/A
Total Debt $5.1B ↑ $4.5B $4.1B $3.7B N/A
Working Capital $279M ▼ $612M $590M $254M N/A
Years to Pay Debt 3.31 2.96 3.30 4.15 N/A
Cash Flow Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Free Cash Flow $1.4B ▼ $1.5B $1.2B $844M N/A
Owner Earnings $2.6B $2.5B $2.1B $1.7B N/A
CapEx % of Net Income 43.4% 38.7% 45.6% 53.3% N/A
These metrics estimate what Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is worth based on its fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. Graham's Fair Value and NCAV are conservative floors rooted in 1930s–60s principles. EPV assumes zero growth. None are price targets — they are reference points for judging whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
Graham's Fair Value
$7.52
Margin of Safety
0%
Market Cap ÷ Company Value
1.00
P/B Ratio
14.55
Warren's Owner Earnings
$2.6B
Latest fiscal year
Graham's 7 Criteria
Defensive Investor Checklist
3/7 — Speculative Investor
✅ Adequate Size
$11.9B
vs > $1.5B revenue
❌ Strong Financial Condition
1.23x
vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
✅ Earnings Stability
No loss years (4 yrs data)
vs No negative EPS years
❌ Dividend Record
No dividend
vs Uninterrupted dividends
✅ Earnings Growth
+77.9% EPS growth
vs > 33% EPS growth
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio
29.4x
vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book
14.55x P/B (P/E×P/B: 427.7)
vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 7 Criteria — Explained
What each criterion measures and why it may or may not apply to modern businesses.
✅ Adequate Size — $11.9B vs > $1.5B revenue
Graham required companies large enough to withstand economic downturns. This threshold ($1.5B) is inflation-adjusted from Graham's original $100M — virtually all S&P 500 companies pass this today.
"The minimum size of an enterprise should be not less than $100 million of annual sales."
❌ Strong Financial Condition — 1.23x vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
Current assets must be at least twice current liabilities. Note: highly profitable companies (Apple, Domino's) often run negative or low working capital deliberately — they collect cash fast and stretch payables. A failing score here is not always a warning sign.
"For industrial companies, current assets should be at least twice current liabilities."
✅ Earnings Stability — No loss years (4 yrs data) vs No negative EPS years
Graham required uninterrupted positive earnings. Any loss year is a red flag for defensive investors. Growth companies and cyclicals may show occasional losses during investment cycles or downturns without being fundamentally unsound.
"The company should have shown no deficit in the past ten years."
❌ Dividend Record — No dividend vs Uninterrupted dividends
Graham valued dividends as evidence of financial discipline and shareholder alignment. Many excellent modern businesses (Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway) pay no dividend, preferring to reinvest cash at high rates of return. Failing this criterion does not indicate a poor business — it may indicate a high-growth one.
"Some current dividend payments — for at least the past 20 years."
✅ Earnings Growth — +77.9% EPS growth vs > 33% EPS growth
EPS grew from $0.64 to $1.14 over 3 years. Graham's 33% threshold was set over a 10-year period. Measured over fewer years (as here), the bar is proportionally lower. Share buybacks can also inflate EPS growth without reflecting underlying business improvement.
"A minimum increase of at least one-third in per-share earnings over ten years."
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio — 29.4x vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
Graham's 15x P/E threshold was calibrated to 1960s market averages when interest rates were higher. Today's lower rate environment structurally supports higher multiples — the S&P 500 long-run average P/E is now closer to 20–25x. A stock trading at 20x is not automatically speculative in the modern context.
"The price-earnings ratio should be no more than 15 times average earnings."
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book — 14.55x P/B (P/E×P/B: 427.7) vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 1.5x P/B threshold made sense when most company value was tangible. Today, intangible assets — brand, software, patents, network effects — rarely appear on the balance sheet. A high P/B in tech, pharma, or consumer brands often reflects intangible value, not overvaluation. P/FCF or EV/EBITDA are more reliable for asset-light businesses.
"The price should not be more than 1½ times book value. P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5."
Net Current Asset Value
$-3.65
Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign.
"Buy at two-thirds of net current assets." — Graham
Earnings Power Value
$17.40
Per share, no-growth floor. Compare to current price.
Cash Flow Analysis
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Capital Expenditure % of Net Income 43.4% 38.7% 45.6% 53.3% N/A
Repurchase of Capital Stock -$2.4B -$1.0B -$592M -$830M N/A
Free Cash Flow $1.4B ▼ $1.5B ▲ $1.2B ▲ $844M • N/A •
Warren's Owner Earnings $2.6B $2.5B $2.1B $1.7B N/A
Peers & Industry Comparison
Restaurants — Auto-detected peers
Company Price Market Cap P/E Gross Margin Net Margin Revenue
CMG $32.04 $41.2B 29.39 25.4% 12.9% $11.9B
MCD
McDonald's Corporation		 $284.42 $202.2B 23.8 57.4% 31.9% $26.9B
SBUX
Starbucks Corporation		 $104.84 $119.5B 80.0 21.9% 3.9% $38.5B
YUM
Yum! Brands, Inc.		 $154.29 $42.7B 24.8 45.7% 20.5% $8.5B
QSR
Restaurant Brands International		 $80.11 $36.6B 30.5 33.8% 8.2% $9.4B
DPZ
Domino's Pizza Inc		 $330.37 $11.0B 19.0 28.7% 11.9% $5.0B
"The management of a business is its most important single factor — more important than market position, patents, or financial structure."
— Benjamin Graham
Capital Allocation & Alignment
Insider Ownership
0.66%
Low — management has little skin in the game
Return on Equity (ROE)
54.3%
Excellent — management generates strong returns on equity
Return on Assets (ROA)
17.1%
Strong — management uses assets efficiently
Share Buybacks (Latest Year)
$2.4B
Management is returning capital to shareholders via buybacks
Debt Trend YoY
+11.8% YoY
Debt is growing — management is leveraging up
Leadership Team
Scott Boatwright
CEO & Director
Age 52
Pay: $2,455,727
0.160% of net income
Curtis Garner III
President and Chief Strategy & Technology Officer
Age 55
Pay: $1,490,348
0.097% of net income
Adam Rymer
Chief Financial Officer
Age 43
Pay: $992,397
0.065% of net income
Jason Kidd
Chief Operating Officer
Top Institutional Holders
Institution % Owned Shares
Vanguard Group Inc 11.27% 144,588,220
Blackrock Inc. 8.56% 109,824,163
Capital World Investors 7.93% 101,688,010
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc 4.56% 58,447,867
State Street Corporation 4.35% 55,788,092
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 4.08% 52,327,684
Capital International Investors 3.53% 45,294,212
Geode Capital Management, LLC 2.33% 29,852,372
⚠️ Current ratio below 1 — liquidity risk
Risk Analysis
Beta (Market Risk)
1.03
Moderate volatility — moves slightly more than market
Short Interest
3.2% of float
Low short interest — market is not heavily bearish
Debt-to-Equity
2.18x
High leverage — significant financial risk
Current Ratio
0.92x
Weak liquidity — current liabilities exceed current assets
52-Week Price Range
Low: $29.75 Current: $32.04 High: $58.42
Currently at 8% of 52-week range

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) fundamental analysis — Overall grade D based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $7.52. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 25.4%. Operating margin: 16.9%. Net margin: 12.9%. Market cap: $41.2B. Sector: Consumer Cyclical. Industry: Restaurants. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.

Disclaimer: 360investing is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. All data is sourced from public third-party providers and may be delayed, inaccurate, or incomplete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Analysis, scores, and valuations are algorithmic and do not represent professional investment recommendations. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. Use of this tool constitutes acceptance that 360investing and its operators bear no liability for decisions made based on information presented here.

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