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AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

NYSE · Real Estate
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.
AVB · REIT - Residential
$182.38
▼ -1.07 (-0.58%)
Data cached · refreshes every 10 min
Mr. Market is currently offering AvalonBay Communities, Inc. at $182.38.
The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
Overall Grade
C
Defensive
C
Enterprising
Profitability A
Gross Profit Margin 63.1%
Operating Margin 30.2%
Net Income Margin 34.6%
Fin. Health F
Years to Pay Off Debt 9.0 yrs
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt -$9.8B
Working Capital -$1.2B
Valuation F
Margin of Safety 0.0%
Price-to-Book 2.19x
Cash Flow B
Free Cash Flow $1.4B
CapEx % of Net Income 25.2%
Owner Earnings $2.2B
3/7
Graham Score
Speculative
Defensive — Graham's strict criteria (P/B, P/E, dividends, stability)  ·  Enterprising — Profitability & cash flow focused, accepts higher valuations for quality
Metric Explanations
What each dimension measures and where the thresholds come from.
Gross Profit Margin
Revenue minus cost of goods sold. Graham's ≥40% threshold identifies businesses with durable pricing power. Note: software and financial companies naturally exceed this; retailers and manufacturers rarely reach it due to their cost structures.
Operating Margin
Profit after operating costs before interest and taxes. A consistent ≥15% operating margin signals a business with real competitive advantages. Capital-intensive industries (airlines, auto, commodities) rarely hit this threshold due to their structural cost base — compare within industry for context.
Net Income Margin
Bottom-line profit as a percentage of revenue. The ≥20% target reflects Buffett's preference for highly profitable businesses. Financial engineering (buybacks, tax optimisation) can inflate this temporarily — look for consistency across multiple years rather than a single strong result.
Years to Pay Off Debt
Total Debt ÷ Net Income. Lower = stronger balance sheet. Important caveat: utilities, telecoms, REITs, and infrastructure companies carry large structural debt by design — their bond-like cash flows service it comfortably at ratios that would alarm Graham. Compare within sector.
Working Capital vs Long-Term Debt
Working Capital minus Long-Term Debt. Negative results are common and expected in capital-return-focused businesses like Apple, Domino's, and McDonald's — where aggressive buybacks and dividends intentionally reduce book equity. This does not indicate financial distress in high-FCF businesses.
Working Capital
Current Assets minus Current Liabilities. Negative working capital can be a deliberate efficiency strategy in businesses that collect cash before paying suppliers (retailers, fast food franchises, subscription businesses). Assess alongside free cash flow generation for full context.
Margin of Safety
How far below the Graham Number the stock trades. Graham required a 33% discount as a buffer against analytical error. However, the Graham Number itself assumes 1960s-era P/E and P/B norms — for modern asset-light businesses it often understates true intrinsic value, making 0% MoS appear misleadingly bad.
Price-to-Book
Market price vs book value per share. Rarely below 1.5x for quality businesses today. Intangible assets (brand, software, patents) don't appear on the balance sheet under accounting rules, making P/B artificially high for asset-light companies. Negative P/B indicates book equity has been reduced by buybacks — common in highly profitable capital-return businesses.
Free Cash Flow
Operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. Buffett's most important metric — cash a business actually generates for its owners after maintaining and growing its asset base. Consistently positive FCF is one of the strongest indicators of a durable, well-run business regardless of accounting profits.
CapEx % of Net Income
Capital expenditure as a share of net income. Low CapEx signals a capital-light business that doesn't need heavy reinvestment to sustain earnings — Buffett's ideal. High CapEx is structurally necessary in manufacturing, airlines, telecoms, and semiconductors. For these industries, a high reading reflects the business model, not poor management.
Owner Earnings
Net Income + Depreciation & Amortisation − Capital Expenditures. Buffett's preferred measure of a company's true annual earning power — what could theoretically be distributed to owners without impairing the business. More reliable than reported EPS because it accounts for the capital cost of maintaining the business.
Market Data
Market Cap $25.4B
Enterprise Value $34.7B
P/E (TTM) 22.60
Dividend Yield 3.83%
Exchange NYSE
Key Margins
Gross Profit 63.1%
Operating Margin 30.2%
Net Margin 34.6%
Company Info
Sector Real Estate
Industry REIT - Residential
Employees 3011
Country United States
Visit website
📖
Full Graham Analysis

Mr. Market is currently offering AvalonBay Communities, Inc. at $182.38.

The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.

At $182.38, the stock trades at a 55% premium to its Graham Number of $117.89. Graham would consider this price speculative.

There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.

Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign..

Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.

About AvalonBay Communities, Inc.

AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 24 communities were under development. AvalonBay Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland, USA.

Showing Key Metrics
Income Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Gross Profit % 63.1% ▼ 63.2% 64.3% 64.6% N/A
Operating Margin % 30.2% ▼ 31.4% 32.0% 30.3% N/A
Net Income % 34.6% ▼ 37.1% 33.6% 43.8% N/A
Diluted EPS 7.40 ▼ 7.60 6.56 8.12 N/A
Balance Sheet Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021
Total Assets $22.2B $21.0B $20.7B $20.5B N/A
Total Debt $9.5B ↑ $8.3B $8.1B $8.5B N/A
Working Capital -$1.2B ▼ -$479M -$164M $75M N/A
Years to Pay Debt 9.03 7.63 8.76 7.46 N/A
Cash Flow Highlights
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022
Free Cash Flow $1.4B ▼ $1.4B $1.4B $1.2B
Owner Earnings $2.2B $2.1B $1.9B $2.1B
CapEx % of Net Income 25.2% 18.3% 21.2% 15.4%
These metrics estimate what AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is worth based on its fundamentals — independent of what the market currently prices it at. Graham's Fair Value and NCAV are conservative floors rooted in 1930s–60s principles. EPV assumes zero growth. None are price targets — they are reference points for judging whether the current price offers a margin of safety.
Graham's Fair Value
$117.89
Margin of Safety
0%
Market Cap ÷ Company Value
1.71
P/B Ratio
2.19
Warren's Owner Earnings
$2.2B
Latest fiscal year
Graham's 7 Criteria
Defensive Investor Checklist
3/7 — Speculative Investor
✅ Adequate Size
$3.0B
vs > $1.5B revenue
❌ Strong Financial Condition
0.23x
vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
✅ Earnings Stability
No loss years (4 yrs data)
vs No negative EPS years
✅ Dividend Record
3.83%
vs Uninterrupted dividends
❌ Earnings Growth
-8.9% EPS growth
vs > 33% EPS growth
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio
22.6x
vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book
2.19x P/B (P/E×P/B: 49.4)
vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 7 Criteria — Explained
What each criterion measures and why it may or may not apply to modern businesses.
✅ Adequate Size — $3.0B vs > $1.5B revenue
Graham required companies large enough to withstand economic downturns. This threshold ($1.5B) is inflation-adjusted from Graham's original $100M — virtually all S&P 500 companies pass this today.
"The minimum size of an enterprise should be not less than $100 million of annual sales."
❌ Strong Financial Condition — 0.23x vs Current Ratio > 2.0x
Current assets must be at least twice current liabilities. Note: highly profitable companies (Apple, Domino's) often run negative or low working capital deliberately — they collect cash fast and stretch payables. A failing score here is not always a warning sign.
"For industrial companies, current assets should be at least twice current liabilities."
✅ Earnings Stability — No loss years (4 yrs data) vs No negative EPS years
Graham required uninterrupted positive earnings. Any loss year is a red flag for defensive investors. Growth companies and cyclicals may show occasional losses during investment cycles or downturns without being fundamentally unsound.
"The company should have shown no deficit in the past ten years."
✅ Dividend Record — 3.83% vs Uninterrupted dividends
Graham valued dividends as evidence of financial discipline and shareholder alignment. Many excellent modern businesses (Alphabet, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway) pay no dividend, preferring to reinvest cash at high rates of return. Failing this criterion does not indicate a poor business — it may indicate a high-growth one.
"Some current dividend payments — for at least the past 20 years."
❌ Earnings Growth — -8.9% EPS growth vs > 33% EPS growth
EPS grew from $8.12 to $7.40 over 3 years. Graham's 33% threshold was set over a 10-year period. Measured over fewer years (as here), the bar is proportionally lower. Share buybacks can also inflate EPS growth without reflecting underlying business improvement.
"A minimum increase of at least one-third in per-share earnings over ten years."
❌ Moderate P/E Ratio — 22.6x vs P/E ≤ 15.0x
Graham's 15x P/E threshold was calibrated to 1960s market averages when interest rates were higher. Today's lower rate environment structurally supports higher multiples — the S&P 500 long-run average P/E is now closer to 20–25x. A stock trading at 20x is not automatically speculative in the modern context.
"The price-earnings ratio should be no more than 15 times average earnings."
❌ Moderate Price-to-Book — 2.19x P/B (P/E×P/B: 49.4) vs P/B ≤ 1.5x | P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5
Graham's 1.5x P/B threshold made sense when most company value was tangible. Today, intangible assets — brand, software, patents, network effects — rarely appear on the balance sheet. A high P/B in tech, pharma, or consumer brands often reflects intangible value, not overvaluation. P/FCF or EV/EBITDA are more reliable for asset-light businesses.
"The price should not be more than 1½ times book value. P/E × P/B ≤ 22.5."
Net Current Asset Value
$-71.92
Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign.
"Buy at two-thirds of net current assets." — Graham
Earnings Power Value
$73.46
Per share, no-growth floor. Compare to current price.
Cash Flow Analysis
Metric 2025 2024 2023 2022
Capital Expenditure % of Net Income 25.2% 18.3% 21.2% 15.4%
Repurchase of Capital Stock -$488M $0M -$2M $0M
Free Cash Flow $1.4B ▼ $1.4B ▲ $1.4B ▲ $1.2B •
Warren's Owner Earnings $2.2B $2.1B $1.9B $2.1B
Peers & Industry
No auto-detected peers for REIT - Residential. You can manually compare AVB against any stock using the Compare tool.
"The management of a business is its most important single factor — more important than market position, patents, or financial structure."
— Benjamin Graham
Capital Allocation & Alignment
Insider Ownership
0.42%
Low — management has little skin in the game
Return on Equity (ROE)
9.1%
Adequate — returns are moderate
Return on Assets (ROA)
4.7%
Fair — average asset utilization
Share Buybacks (Latest Year)
$488M
Management is returning capital to shareholders via buybacks
Debt Trend YoY
+15.1% YoY
Debt is growing — management is leveraging up
Leadership Team
Benjamin Schall
President, CEO & Director
Age 50
Pay: $2,861,400
0.272% of net income
Kevin O'Shea
Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer
Age 59
Pay: $1,665,470
0.158% of net income
Sean Breslin
Chief Operating Officer
Age 58
Pay: $1,804,951
0.172% of net income
Pamela Thomas
Executive Vice President of Portfolio & Asset Management
Age 59
Pay: $1,512,905
0.144% of net income
Alaine Walsh
Executive Vice President of Human Capital & Administration
Age 53
Top Institutional Holders
Institution % Owned Shares
Vanguard Group Inc 16.36% 22,760,872
Blackrock Inc. 13.34% 18,558,335
State Street Corporation 6.80% 9,463,027
NORGES BANK 5.53% 7,691,993
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 3.71% 5,159,950
Principal Financial Group, Inc. 3.23% 4,497,047
Geode Capital Management, LLC 2.98% 4,151,217
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc 2.83% 3,934,153
⚠️ Current ratio below 1 — liquidity risk
Risk Analysis
Beta (Market Risk)
0.80
Low volatility — more stable than the market
Short Interest
4.5% of float
Low short interest — market is not heavily bearish
Debt-to-Equity
0.80x
Conservative balance sheet — low financial risk
Current Ratio
0.19x
Weak liquidity — current liabilities exceed current assets
52-Week Price Range
Low: $160.10 Current: $182.38 High: $211.65
Currently at 43% of 52-week range

AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) fundamental analysis — Overall grade C based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $117.89. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 63.1%. Operating margin: 30.2%. Net margin: 34.6%. Market cap: $25.4B. Sector: Real Estate. Industry: REIT - Residential. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.

Disclaimer: 360investing is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. All data is sourced from public third-party providers and may be delayed, inaccurate, or incomplete. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Analysis, scores, and valuations are algorithmic and do not represent professional investment recommendations. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decision. Use of this tool constitutes acceptance that 360investing and its operators bear no liability for decisions made based on information presented here.

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