Mr. Market is currently offering Phillips 66 at $177.64.
The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
At $177.64, the stock trades at a 34% premium to its Graham Number of $132.73. Graham would consider this price speculative.
There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.
Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign..
Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.
Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit % | 9.8% ▲ | 7.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | N/A |
| Operating Margin % | 2.6% ▲ | 1.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | N/A |
| Net Income % | 3.3% ▲ | 1.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | N/A |
| Diluted EPS | 10.79 ▲ | 4.99 | 15.48 | 23.27 | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $73.7B | $72.6B | $75.5B | $76.4B | N/A |
| Total Debt | $19.7B ↓ | $20.1B | $19.4B | $17.2B | N/A |
| Working Capital | $3.9B ▲ | $2.8B | $4.1B | $6.0B | N/A |
| Years to Pay Debt | 4.48 | 9.48 | 2.76 | 1.56 | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B ▲ | $2.3B | $4.9B | $8.9B |
| Owner Earnings | $9.9B | $6.3B | $11.1B | $14.5B |
| CapEx % of Net Income | 50.7% | 87.8% | 30.7% | 17.1% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Expenditure % of Net Income | 50.7% | 87.8% | 30.7% | 17.1% |
| Repurchase of Capital Stock | -$1.2B | -$3.5B | -$4.0B | -$1.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.7B ▲ | $2.3B ▼ | $4.9B ▼ | $8.9B • |
| Warren's Owner Earnings | $9.9B | $6.3B | $11.1B | $14.5B |
| Institution | % Owned | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 12.95% | 51,930,038 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 7.71% | 30,919,347 |
| State Street Corporation | 5.88% | 23,589,550 |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | 4.80% | 19,251,000 |
| Wells Fargo & Company | 3.53% | 14,152,872 |
| Harris Associates L.P. | 3.49% | 13,978,492 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 2.60% | 10,413,824 |
| Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation | 1.77% | 7,103,557 |
Phillips 66 (PSX) fundamental analysis — Overall grade D based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $132.73. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 9.8%. Operating margin: 2.6%. Net margin: 3.3%. Market cap: $71.2B. Sector: Energy. Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.
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