Mr. Market is currently offering Marathon Petroleum Corporation at $251.53.
The business passes only 3 of 7 of Graham's defensive criteria — well below his required standard.
At $251.53, the stock trades at a 90% premium to its Graham Number of $132.24. Graham would consider this price speculative.
There is no margin of safety at the current price. Graham would advise patience and waiting for a better entry point.
Negative NCAV — liabilities exceed current assets. Common in capital-return businesses (buybacks, debt-funded dividends) and capital-intensive industries. Not automatically a warning sign..
Conclusion: By Graham's standards, this stock is speculative at its current price. The intelligent investor would look elsewhere or wait.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit % | 7.5% ▲ | 6.7% | 11.1% | 12.7% | N/A |
| Operating Margin % | 4.3% ▲ | 3.8% | 8.5% | 10.7% | N/A |
| Net Income % | 3.0% ▲ | 2.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | N/A |
| Diluted EPS | 13.22 ▲ | 10.08 | 23.63 | 28.12 | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $84.0B | $78.9B | $86.0B | $89.9B | N/A |
| Total Debt | $34.4B ↑ | $28.8B | $28.5B | $27.9B | N/A |
| Working Capital | $5.1B ▲ | $3.6B | $12.0B | $15.2B | N/A |
| Years to Pay Debt | 8.49 | 8.35 | 2.94 | 1.92 | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B ▼ | $6.1B | $12.2B | $13.9B | N/A |
| Owner Earnings | $10.8B | $9.3B | $14.9B | $20.2B | N/A |
| CapEx % of Net Income | 86.1% | 73.5% | 19.5% | 16.7% | N/A |
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital Expenditure % of Net Income | 86.1% | 73.5% | 19.5% | 16.7% | N/A |
| Repurchase of Capital Stock | -$3.5B | -$9.2B | -$11.6B | -$11.9B | N/A |
| Free Cash Flow | $4.8B ▼ | $6.1B ▼ | $12.2B ▼ | $13.9B • | N/A • |
| Warren's Owner Earnings | $10.8B | $9.3B | $14.9B | $20.2B | N/A |
| Institution | % Owned | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Group Inc | 13.00% | 38,291,917 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 7.61% | 22,425,221 |
| State Street Corporation | 6.09% | 17,934,327 |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 2.64% | 7,769,469 |
| Wellington Management Group, LLP | 2.45% | 7,203,536 |
| Boston Partners | 2.08% | 6,119,715 |
| Morgan Stanley | 2.07% | 6,083,885 |
| Raymond James Financial, Inc. | 1.97% | 5,815,034 |
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) fundamental analysis — Overall grade F based on profitability, financial health, valuation and cash flow. Graham's Fair Value: $132.24. Margin of safety: 0%. Gross profit margin: 7.5%. Operating margin: 4.3%. Net margin: 3.0%. Market cap: $74.1B. Sector: Energy. Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Analysis powered by 360investing — free fundamental stock analysis based on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett principles.
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